Clifford vs. Petras: Penn State has the QB edge, but will it matter?

As the biggest Big Ten game involving neither Michigan nor Ohio State in 59 years approaches, people will parse No. 3 Iowa and No. 4 Penn State down to the molecular level to determine which team has the advantage.

As is frequently the case with these matters, quarterback is where most of the comparisons begin. And who are we to buck tradition?

Here’s how Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras and Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford stack up by the numbers this season:

All games

Clifford: 67.3% completions, 160.7 er rating, 8.8 yards per attempt, 11 TDs, 3 INTs

Petras: 62% completions, 136.8 er rating, 7.1 yards per attempt, 7 TDs, 1 INTs

Advantage: Clifford.

Power 5 games

Clifford: 64.3% completions, 140.8 er rating, 7.2 YPA, 6 TDs, 2 INTs

Petras: 57.7% completions, 132.2 er rating, 6.9 YPA, 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Advantage: Clifford. However, it’s worth noting that Clifford faced an Auburn defense that ranks 71st nationally. Petras and the Hawkeyes faced an Iowa State D that’s 28th overall. If you reversed the opponents, there’s a chance their respective numbers would flip as well.

Big Ten games

Clifford: 53% completions, 124.1 er rating, 6.4 YPA, 4 TDs, 1 INTs

Petras: 59.6% completions, 140.2 er rating, 7.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

Advantage: Petras. Same situation as above, but benefitting a different quarterback. Clifford has faced 2 tough defenses — Wisconsin and Indiana — while Petras played against Maryland and Indiana.

Neither quarterback tore it up against the Hoosiers, though Clifford was more productive. He was 17-of-33 for 178 yards with 3 touchdowns and an interception, while Petras went 13-of-27 for 146 yards without a touchdown or interception.

Third-down ing

Clifford: 65.5% completions, 146.8 er rating, 9.1 YPA, 12 first downs, 1 TD, 1 INT

Petras: 60.5% completions, 119 er rating, 5.9 YPA, 14 first downs, 1 TD, 0 INTs

Advantage: Clifford. Petras is plenty capable of moving the chains, but the Nittany Lions are more willing to be aggressive on third down.

Second half stats

Clifford: 70.5% completions, 175.7 er rating, 10.3 YPA, 14 plays over 15 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Petras: 60.8% completions, 144.3 er rating, 7.6 YPA, 8 plays over 15 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs

Advantage: Clifford. In of second-half play, he and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud have been the class of the Big Ten this season. It’s inadvisable to get into too big a hole against Iowa, but Clifford is one of the few league quarterbacks capable of leading a comeback against the Hawkeyes.

Dotson the difference-maker?

When considering Clifford’s numbers, one cannot ignore the benefits of having one of the Big Ten’s premier playmakers at his disposal. Penn State wide receiver Jahan Dotson is potentially the best offensive player in the conference.

Dotson has caught 35 of Penn State’s 109 completions (32.1%), 6 of 12 touchdowns (50%) and ed for 446 of the team’s 1,446 receiving yards (31.1%).

Petras’ top targets are tight end Matt LaPorta (22 catches, 263 yards) and running back Tyler Goodson (12 catches, 146 yards). When you break the teams down strictly by wide receiver production, Dotson s for more offense than Iowa’s top 5 receivers combined (38 catches, 443 yards).

Is either quarterback good enough to overcome the defense?

In all likelihood, Saturday’s game will be decided by which quarterback avoids making the bad throw as opposed to which makes the big throw. Both teams feature stingy defenses that take full advantage of their opponents’ miscues.

No one in the country is better than Iowa, which has 12 interceptions and limits opponents to 54.8% completions and a 96.9 er rating. But the Nittany Lions aren’t far off. Penn State is 10th nationally with 7 interceptions, and 7th with a 98.8 opposing er rating.

By the numbers, Penn State has the more capable quarterback. Petras is a trustworthy game manager, but Clifford has more ability to make a late-game throw that can ice a game or trigger a comeback.

However, in a matchup like this, the game manager isn’t a bad guy to have. This Top-5 showdown may be determined by which quarterback blinks first against an intimidating defense.