B1G bowl projections after Week 8: Can Indiana snag a CFP spot?

The Big Ten, per usual, is a complete and utter mess when it comes to bowl projections.

We’re getting to the point where 8 or 9 teams could realistically finish the season 6-6, including Michigan, Washington, USC, Rutgers, Maryland, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan State. That is just unbelievable, folks.

Because of this, let’s start with what we know: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon seem to be locks for the College Football Playoff barring complete chaos. Indiana and Illinois are real threats – especially Indiana. But here’s the sad reality for Hoosiers fans: The College Football Playoff Committee may have to decide between 11-1 Indiana with zero ranked wins vs. 10-2 Tennessee/LSU/Texas A&M/Mizzou with 2 ranked wins. As much as I think these Hoosiers deserve a spot, I’m just not sure it’s going to happen without beating Ohio State.

Direct your anger towards Michigan, Indiana fans. That was the quality win they needed on their resume at year’s end, but the Wolverines are looking worse and worse each ing week. By the time Week 11 rolls around, Michigan could very well be under .500.

Illinois’ opportunity is easier said than done: Beat Oregon this weekend. Do that and win out, you’re in good shape, Illini. Otherwise, there just isn’t a path.

Bowls select teams in a certain order, and selection is often based around record, brand image and to an extent location. These bowls want to bring in the most fans as possible. The Big Ten’s logjam from 6-13 means that the top brands are likely to get the top bowls.

The Citrus, ReliaQuest, Alama and Mayo bowls are the top options for the Big Ten. Indiana and Illinois are leaps and bounds better than the remaining teams, so they’ll get the top 2 spots in the Cirtus against Tennessee and ReliaQuest against Alabama, respectively.

After that, Michigan and Washington are the 2 biggest brands, but Iowa could crank out 8 wins. Michigan gets the Mayo Bowl, Washington gets the Alamo Bowl and Iowa gets the Music City Bowl.

Rutgers, Maryland, USC and Michigan State are complete wild cards. I still have faith the Trojans will pull it together, and the Spartans’ huge win over Iowa should push them over the edge as well.

Maryland’s schedule is tough, which is why they sit on the outside looking in right now. Rutgers is trending in the wrong direction after starting 4-0 and also faces a tough schedule that features USC, Minnesota, Illinois and Michigan State. I think all those teams are playing better football right now.

Until next week, college football.

College Football Playoff

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. 8/9 winner

Rose Bowl: Georgia vs. 7/10 winner

Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner

Fiesta Bowl: BYU vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

From Eugene, Oregon: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Boise State

From Austin, Texas: No. 6 Texas vs. No. 11 LSU

From State College, Pennsylvania: No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 10 Texas A&M

From Clemson, South Carolina: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa State

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Indiana vs. Tennessee

ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. Alabama

Mayo Bowl: Michigan vs. Louisville

Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Mizzou

Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Kansas State

Pinstripe Bowl:  Nebraska vs. Boston College

Gasparilla Bowl: Wisconsin vs. North Carolina

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota vs. West Viginia

Sun Bowl: USC vs. Virginia Tech

Detroit Bowl: Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan